Fixed mortgage rates are now down more than 1/2 percent from the start of the year, and 3/4 percent from just 1 year ago. The drop has dramatically improved home affordability for home buyers in Cincinnati while creating refinance opportunities for existing homeowners.
From a payment perspective, a conforming, 30-year fixed rate mortgage is now cheaper by $41.94 per month per $100,000 borrowed versus July 2009.
A homeowner with a $300,000 mortgage, therefore, is saving $45,295.20 over 30 years.
Low mortgage rates rarely last long and rates appear to have troughed. After a big downhill between April and July, they’re now flat. This could mean rates have finished falling, or that they’re gearing up for another drop lower. Either way, if you haven’t talked to your real estate agent about home affordability, or your loan officer about refinancing, it may be time to make that call.
If today’s market marks the end of low rates, rates are expected to rise quickly.
For the second consecutive month, U.S. consumer confidence is plunging. July’s official reading is its lowest since July of last year and the figures run in stark contrast to just two months ago, when the index touched a multi-year high.
According to The Conference Board, July’s figures are reflective of a more pessimistic consumer; one concerned about “business conditions and the labor market”.
Falling confidence numbers are presumed to be poor for the economy. For homeowner and home buyers in Cincinnati , however, they can create opportunity. Low confidence can influence the mortgage market in a positive manner, driving mortgage rates down.
The link between consumer confidence and everyday mortgage rates roots in consumer spending.
Consumer spending accounts for close to 70% of the overall U.S. economy so, the thought goes that, a less confident consumer is less likely to spend money, thereby retarding economic growth. This harms the stock markets and drives cash to bonds, including mortgage-backed bonds.
More bond demand leads bond prices to rise which, in turn, pushes mortgage rates lower.
The other side of lagging confidence is that Americans may be less likely to take new financial risks when they’re feeling unsure, including buying a new home. This can then drag on the housing market, negatively impacting home prices across Ohio.
Falling home values can help buyers, harm sellers, and stymie would-be refinancers.
It’s tough to predict how consumer confidence data will work its way through the economy, but in the near-term, it appears to be helping mortgage rates stay low. If you’re floating a mortgage rate with your lender, or contemplating a refinance, the time may be right to lock in a rate.
Standard & Poors released its Case-Shiller Index Tuesday. On a seasonally-adjusted basis, between April and May 2010, home prices rose in 19 of Case-Shiller’s 20 tracked markets. It’s the second straight month of strong Case-Shiller findings.
Also, May’s numbers are a mirror-image of February’s. In February, 19 of 20 markets lost value.
In its press release, the Case-Shiller staff resisted calling May’s data proof of a housing recovery, noting that home values remain flat as compared to October of last year. However, there are some noteworthy numbers in the Case-Shiller report.
13 of the 20 tracked cities are showing home price improvement year-over-year
Foreclosure posterchlld San Diego has now shown 13 straight months of improvement
San Diego, San Francisco and Minneapolis are showing double-digit annual growth
These are all good signs for the housing market, but the Case-Shiller Index is not without its flaws. Most notably, the data is limited to just 20 cities nationwide — and they’re not even the 20 largest ones.
Cities like Houston, Philadelphia, and San Jose are excluded from Case-Shiller, while cities like Tampa (#54) are not.
Another Case-Shiller flaw is that it reports on a 2-month delay.
Therefore, today is several days from the start of August but we’re now reflecting on data from May. Given the speed at which the Cincinnati real estate market can change, May’s data is almost ancient. Today’s values may be higher or lower than what Case-Shiller reports.
For home buyers, reports like the Case-Shiller Index may not be useful in making a “Buy or Not Buy” decision, but can aid in watching longer-term trends in housing. For real-time data, talk to a real estate agent with access to local figures instead.
June’s data is a major improvement over May, but it’s possible that the true “new home market” may be softer than the statistics suggest. This is for several reasons.
First, we’re comparing June’s sales data to the worst month in New Home Sales history.
In May, sales of new homes totaled just 267,000 units nationwide. That’s one-quarter fewer sales than in the previous worst month in New Home Sales history. May’s sales levels were awful by any measure but June’s improvement to 330,000 units remains second-worst sales levels ever posted.
Second, although much improved, June’s new home supply of 7.6 months is elevated versus the historical norm near 6.0 months. The last year has averaged 7.7 months.
For buyers of new homes in Cincinnati , this combination of low sales volume and higher-than-normal inventory may be a positive. It’s the main reason why homebuilder confidence is reeling and the downturn has opened some doors for big discounts and deals. Free upgrades and closing cost credits can make a well-priced home even more attractive.
Plus, with mortgage rates at all-time lows and expected to rise, home affordability is may never be better.
According to the EPA, if every household in America replaced one “traditional” bulb with an energy-saving compact fluorescent lamp (CFL) light bulb, it would result in $700 million in energy cost savings each year, plus a greenhouse gas savings equivalent to that of 800,000 automobiles.
They’re expensive, but CFL bulbs tend to pay for themselves in less a year, and often last for several. It’s no wonder they’re so popular with homeowners in Cincinnati. But, CFLs also come with health risks.
Namely, CFL bulbs contain mercury — an average of 4 milligrams per bulb.
The mere presence of mercury doesn’t make CFLs dangerous. It just means that you should exercise care when handling them, and take certain precautions when disposing of them.
The Environment Protection Agency offers some tips:
Screw/unscrew the bulb from the base and not the bulb to prevent breakage
The EPA website also give guidance for dealing with broken bulbs. Among the recommendations: Don’t wash mercury-covered clothing to prevent contaminating other clothing, too, and don’t vacuum up the poison, either. There are special handling instructions to prevent poisoning yourself and others in your household.
The EPA’s CFL safety PDF is 3 pages long and can be viewed on its Web site.
CFLs provide long-term energy and environment cost savings. And, with some common sense care, their risks to your health can be minimized.
Consistent with most post-home buyer tax credit housing news, the National Association of Realtors® says Existing Home Sales eased lower last month.
An “existing home” is a home that cannot be considered new construction.
The 5 percent drop in sales from May to June was expected, but a closer look at the month’s data reveals some interesting trends.
First, repeat buyers accounted for 44 percent of home resales in June, up from 40 percent in May. That’s a healthy increase for just 4 weeks’ time and the tax credit is a likely catalyst. First-timer buyers bought starter homes owned by former first-timers, who were then free to “move up” to larger, more expensive property.
Housing markets can be trickle-up and, not coincidentally, the jumbo/luxury housing market is now in the midst of rebound.
Second, June’s “distressed sales” accounted for 32 percent of all home resales, up from 31 percent in May.
A figure like this hints at the large role foreclosures continue to play in a Cincinnati home buyer’s home search strategy. And why not? The National Association of Realtors® suggests that distressed homes are sold at a 15 percent discount.
Lastly, take note that home inventories are rising. June’s 8.9 months of supply is the highest in 10 months. Excess supply leads home prices lower, all things equal.
Overall, the Existing Home Sales data from June is a mixed bag. There’s support for the middle- and upper-price tiers, but a growing overhang of supply. The market looks favorable for buyers given low mortgage rates and strong negotiation leverage.
The New York Times ran an important story this week concerning pregnancy and mortgage approvals. Titled “Need a Mortgage? Don’t Get Pregnant“, the article discussed the difficulties that expecting and recently-expanded families are having with their mortgage financing.
The crux of the issue is that maternity/paternity leave often leads to a change in household income and mortgage lenders will no longer assume one or both parents will go back to work full-time. The loss of income can raise a household’s debt-to-income ratio to unlendable levels.
Now, your loan officer cannot ask you about a pregnancy; such questions would be in violation of Equal Credit Opportunity Act. But he can ask if whether you expect your future employment and income situation to change. This would be a perfect time to broach the topic. And you should. If you’re found to have withheld employment and income information from your lender at a later date, it could result in an immediate loan denial plus a loss of earnest monies paid.
Across both pieces, though, the prevailing message is this: Families concurrently planning to (1) have a baby and (2) buy a home should be up-front and forthcoming with their loan officers. Financing is often still available for families expecting an addition — there’s just some extra paperwork though which to work.
Be prepared for that paperwork and you’re more likely to get your loan.
Single-family Housing Starts eased lower last month, falling by 0.7 percent from May, or 3,000 units nationwide.
A “housing start” is a home on which construction has started.
June’s Housing Starts data is somewhat soft and may partially explain why home builder confidence dropped to its lowest level since April 2009, but for buyers and sellers in Cincinnati , the Housing Starts report is not nearly as bad as headlines say.
This is because when the press reports on Housing Starts, it doesn’t single out single-family homes. The press lumps every type of home into a single, giant reading. As a result, news outlets are reporting Housing Starts down 5 percent — a somewhat misleading figure.
The 5 percent figure is actually a combination of 3 separate housing types:
Single-Family Housing Starts
Multi-Unit Housing Starts (2-4 Units)
Apartment Building Housing Starts (5 or more units)
But, single-family homes are what most Americans purchase. This is why the single-family starts data is more relevant than the combined figure commonly reported by the press. 2-4 units and apartment buildings are a different realm of buyer.
That said, though, we can’t even be sure that June’s Single-Family Housing Starts report is accurate. As noted in the Department of Commerce’s press release, the data’s margin of error is 10.7 percent which means the reported results are of “no confidence”.
In other words, there is no statistical evidence to prove the actual change was different from zero.
If Housing Starts did, in fact, drop in June, it will help to reduce the Indian Hill housing inventory, which will provide support for local home values. For home sellers, this could be good news. Fewer homes for sale means less competition for buyers.
Builder confidence in the housing market slipped this month, according to the National Association of Homebuilders’ monthly Housing Market Index.
The Housing Market Index is actually a weighted composite of 3 separate surveys. One measures current single-family sales; one measures projected single-family sales; and one measures traffic of prospective buyers.
All three surveys were down in July:
Single-Family Sales : From 17 (June) to 15 (July)
Single-Family Project : From 22 (June) to 21 (July)
For home buyers in Cincinnati , a drop in builder confidence could create an opportunity for negotiation.
Remember, it wasn’t too long ago that most builders were flush with home inventory, unable to find willing buyers. To help move product at that time, builders dropped prices and offered incentives including free upgrades. If confidence continues to sag going forward, home purchase deals of that nature may return — especially as the foreclosure market gets larger.
See, in the past, builders’ main competition for buyers were the existing home sellers. Today, builders compete with the existing home sellers and the banks with REO.
It’s a terrific time to be a home buyer, in other words — sellers are fighting for you. It’s no wonder sellers have little leverage anymore. Couple that with all-time low mortgage rates and affordability for homes is at an all-time high.
If you’re planning to buy a home later this year, you may want to consider moving up your time frame. The market looks ripe for good deals this summer.
Home affordability is at an all-time high. Home values are still in recovery while mortgage rates continue to make new lows. But where are homes the most affordable?
CNNMoney.com recently ran a piece titled “Where Homes Are Affordable“, listing 25 communities around the U.S. in which median incomes are relatively high and median homes are relatively low. It’s a housing market “bank for your buck” list.
The top 10 cities as listed by the editors:
Deerfield Beach, FL
Lafayette, IN
San Antonio, TX
Deltona, FL
Spring, TX
Glendale, AZ
Avondale, AZ
Bolingbrook, IL
Fishers, IN
Des Moines, IA
Of the top 10, 2 picks are from the Southeast; 4 are from the Midwest; and 4 are from the Southwest. 2 are “major” cities and the rest are suburbs of bigger cities. Lafayette stands lone as a college town.
The rest of CNNMoney.com’s 25 cities follow a similar pattern — larger suburbs geographically concentrated in the Midwest and Southwest. Surprisingly, though, New Jersey and Virginia do find themselves represented. Even the expensive Eastern Seaboard has its good buys.
According to Freddie Mac, mortgage rates made new all-time lows this week and the good news is that rates look poised to fall even more.
Since the Federal Reserve’s release of its June 2010 meeting minutes Wednesday, mortgage rates are dipping even more and one of the main reasons why is because of some choice Fed words.
If you’ve never seen a Fed Minutes release, it reads academic. The document is page after page of stats, facts and figures about the U.S. economy, accompanied by an in-depth recap of the intra-Fed member debates that shape the nation’s monetary policy.
At 7,333 words, the June Fed Minutes is the unabridged version of the more well-known, post-meeting press release. The corresponding press release was just 360 words.
As it turns out, Wall Street didn’t like what it read in the minutes. Specifically:
The Fed expects below normal growth through 2012
The Fed’s outlook for employment has dipped
Credit conditions are easing only slowly
Furthermore, the Fed said its action may be needed if the economy were “to worsen appreciably”.
Overall, the economic optimism the Fed displayed earlier this year appears to be waning. The economy is moving forward — just not as quickly as expected. That should bode well for mortgage rates and home shopping in Cincinnati.
Mortgage rates were down Wednesday afternoon and Thursday and remain historically low. All it would take to reverse rates, however, is a run of positive news on jobs, growth, and consumer spending. Therefore, if you know you need to lock a mortgage rate in the near-term, it may be a good time to make the call.
313,841 foreclosure filings were made in June, according to foreclosure-tracking firm RealtyTrac. The figure represents a 3 percent drop from May and 7 percent drop from June of last year. However, foreclosure filings remain relatively high nationwide.
June marks the 16th straight month the filings topped 300,000. 1 in every 411 U.S. homes received some form of notice last month with foreclosure density varying wildly from state-to-state.
Like everything else in real estate, it seems, foreclosures are a local phenomenon.
The states with the highest foreclosures per capita were:
Nevada : 1 foreclosure filing per 88 homes
Florida : 1 foreclosure filing per 171 homes
Arizona : 1 foreclosure filing per 189 homes
The states with the lowest foreclosures per capita were:
Vermont : 1 foreclosure filing per 26,051 homes
West Virgina : 1 foreclosure filing per 8,058 homes
South Dakota : 1 foreclosure filing per 6,528 homes
Overall, 40 states beat the national Foreclosure Per Capita average and 10 states fell below. The sheer volume of REO, though, is creating interesting buying opportunities for first-timer buyers, move-up buyers, and real estate investors in Cincinnati.
Homes bought from banks are usually less expensive than non-foreclosure homes. This is one of the major reasons why distressed sales account for roughly 30 percent of all home resales. Less expensive, though, doesn’t always mean “cheaper”. Foreclosed homes are often sold as-is and may be defective or otherwise uninhabitable.
Making repairs to get these homes into “living condition” can be costly.
Therefore, if you’re buying a foreclosed home, make sure you know what you’re buying before you make your bid. Have a certified professional inspect the home to check for damage, and consider enlisting the help of a real estate agent to assist with negotiations and management of the contract.
The process of buying a foreclosed home is different from buying a typical resale. Make sure you do your homework.
Conforming mortgage rates may be posting all-time lows this week, but that doesn’t mean you’ll be eligible for them. You may have already called your loan officer and found this out the hard way.
It’s because of a federally-mandated mortgage-pricing scheme known as “loan-level pricing adjustments”.
In effect since April 2009, loan-level pricing adjustments are changes to a loan’s base rate and/or fee structure based on that loan’s inherent risk to Wall Street. It’s similar to auto insurance pricing adjustment in that a sports car, all things equal, will cost more to insure than a comparably-priced minivan.
More risk, more cost.
In mortgage lending, loan risk can be loosely grouped into 5 categories. Mortgage applications in Cincinnati featuring any of the five traits are subject to price adjustments:
Credit Score (i.e. the borrower’s FICO is below 740)
Property Type (i.e. the subject property is a multi-unit home)
Occupancy (i.e. the subject property is an investment home)
Structure (i.e. there is a subordinate/junior lien on title)
Equity (i.e. mortgage insurance is required by the lender)
Furthermore, loan-level pricing adjustments are cumulative.
A 3-unit investment home will face larger adjustments than an owner-occupied 3-unit home, for example. It’s these adjustments that explain why you may not be eligible for the rates you see advertised online and in the newspapers — your particular loan may be subject to this risk-based pricing that raises your mortgage rate and closing costs.
The government’s loan-level pricing adjustment schedule is public information. See what your lender and how your loan quote is made at the Fannie Mae website. Or, if you find the charts confusing, just call or email your loan officer for help with interpretation.
If your adjustable rate mortgage is due to adjust this year, don’t go rushing to replace it just yet. Your soon-to-adjust mortgage rate may actually go lower. It’s related to the math behind the ARM.
Conventional, adjustable-rate mortgages share a common life cycle:
There’s a “starter period” in which the interest rate remains fixed
There’s an initial adjustment period after the starter period called the “first adjustment”
There’s a subsequent annual adjustment until the loan’s term expires — usually at Year 30.
The starter period will vary from 1 to 10 years, but at the point of first adjustment, conventional ARMs become the same. A homeowner’s new, adjusted mortgage rate is determined by the sum of some constant, and a variable. The constant is most often 2.25% and the variable is most often the 12-month LIBOR.
LIBOR is an acronym standing for London Interbank Offered Rate. It’s the rate at which banks borrow money from each other and, lately, LIBOR has been low. As a result, adjusting mortgage rates have been low, too.
Last year, 5-year ARMs were adjusting to 6 percent or higher. Today, they’re adjusting to 3.375%.
Based on the math, it may be wise to just let your ARM adjust this year. Or, depending on how long you plan to stay in your home, consider a refinance to a new ARM. Starter rates on today’s adjustable rate mortgages are exceptionally low in Cincinnati , as are the rates for fixed rate loans.
Either way, talk to your loan officer about making a plan. With mortgage rates as low as they’ve ever been in history, homeowners have some interesting options. Just don’t wait too long. LIBOR — and mortgage rates in general — are known to change quickly.
Up to 50% of your home’s energy bill can be tied to heating and cooling costs. Thankfully, it’s easy to lower those bills. The addition of a ceiling fan can cut your household energy bills dramatically.
Plus, the installation may be simpler than you think.
Choose the right-sized fan for your room based on its “longest wall”
Cut the power to your room, and test that the power is off
Assemble a ceiling fan
Secure a ceiling fan motor to the ceiling
Restore power to the room
If you’re uncomfortable around electricity, or feel the video’s instructions are “too complicated”, by all means, call an electrician. The money you spend on installation will be dwarfed by what you save in energy bills.
For an electrician referral in Cincinnati , reach out to me anytime by phone or email. I am happy to help you.
For the second consecutive month, U.S. consumer confidence is plunging. July’s official reading is its lowest since July of last year and the figures run in stark contrast to just two months ago, when the index touched a multi-year high.
Consistent with most post-home buyer tax credit housing news, the National Association of Realtors® says 
Builder confidence in the housing market slipped this month, according to the National Association of Homebuilders’ monthly Housing Market Index.
Home affordability is at an all-time high. Home values are still in recovery while mortgage rates continue to make new lows. But where are homes the most affordable?
Conforming mortgage rates may be 
